AYAV? gg all

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Mockmaster** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:32 pm

Memento Mori wrote:Mockmaster has been in my eyes suspiciously quiet so far.

I was out on the 'bants' in London all day yesterday as I mentioned in an earlier post. Previous to that I had been fairly active in the thread. Sunshine.

FatDaz wrote:Mcjihge2 has posted a useful stats comparison from last game. confirms My theory that most wolves /vamps hide in obscurity by posting comparatively little. The less they say the less chance of being caught in the cross hair of an Ill informed angry mob! I think we need to focus on people who aren't helping, posting but not giving ideas or strategies, throwaway comments to appear active but not constructive.

That's basically it, yes. The vamps just have to sit back, and let chaos unfold gradually before their eyes. They just have to avoid making a slip-up and let paranoia take its course. They don't have to do much at all other than gently prod in certain directions.

I don't like either of the proposed set of lynch candidates. The fact that there is so little activity does lend credence to the thought that there are no vamp necks on the line. I don't have a better suggestion right now, other than to go the random selection route as we did for one of the candidates yesterday. Yes, it is a risk, but at least doing it that way takes any element of control away from the vamps and makes them hold their breath like the rest of us.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Zellery** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:35 pm

I just don't understand why PCCD hasn't come in all day.

He elected himself last night to run for Mayor, yet today is yet to even make an appearance.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Red Devil** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:37 pm

I'm sort of half tempted to suggest whoever gets the mayorship puts two inactives up for the lynch. While PCCD and Luke_25 haven't been the most active, they have been so more than others and perhaps the two randoms might chirp up a bit. There's still tomorrow for PCCD and Luke after all.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **That** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:38 pm

Mockmaster, if you would like to run on the basis of a random pick, you have my tentative vote. I am going to do some maths and see how likely it is we pick one or more vampires, one moment.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Rubix** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:41 pm

What time is the Mayor selected, im off to my parents for a bit for dinner,

I still have my phone

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Zellery** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:42 pm

I'd be happy to vote for any of this list.

Considering we have no concrete proof. Two from there would be fine by me.

I read the thread last night after coming home from the bants but now i've forgotten most of it and like strawberry float am I reading through that again. Again, none of the lynch candidates are really standing out for me and the mayoral voting has been suspiciously quiet. I like Mockmaster's idea of going for two randoms at this stage, I mean how often have early lynches been successful at this stage in the game when the lynchees have been strong early contributors to the game? I wouldn't be surprised if it was never.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Zellery** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:43 pm

Rubix wrote:What time is the Mayor selected, im off to my parents for a bit for dinner,

I still have my phone

2pm is when we have to have a Mayor by.

I'll back a random pick because from my experience as a wolf, none of the villagers' leads are accurate at all and the villagers generally have no idea who the wolves are. Also, the wolves don't influence the mayoral vote, they simply rely on their block vote to the GM to get the Lynch they want. The best way to counter this is to have everyone voting, so even if you have no idea who you want to see get the chop, still vote, because there's a 50% chance you'll be voting the opposite way to the wolves.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **That** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:45 pm

Possibilities: { WF, FW, WW }

Probabilities:
p(WF | FW) = 2 * ((6 * 48)/(53 * 52))
= 0.2090
p(WW) = (6 * 5)/(53 * 52)
= 0.01089

=> p(WF | FW | WW) = 0.2090 + 0.01089
= 22%

Roughly a one in five chance of putting a vampire in the docks using this random pick method. I'm not sure that'll send them shaking in their boots, to be honest, but it might be our best chance at this early stage.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Herdanos** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:48 pm

We have less than 15 minutes though.

I don't think it reasonable to change the nominees I've put up at this stage. If people want to go for the random method, then a candidate can propose it and people can back that person instead, but as far as I'm concerned if you voted for me you did so because of those two nominees and to change it once I have their vote without their consent isn't fair. If people who voted for me want to back a nominee proposing the random method then feel free to do so.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Mockmaster** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:48 pm

I really did not want to run for mayor at this stage of the game but since the random idea appears to have some backing, I hereby put myself forward. I will randomly select 2 people from the entire list of players. I will obviously try and do it via video like Satriales did so that it can be seen that there is no funny business going on.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **satriales** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:49 pm

I shall vote for Staydead, because if PCCD or Luke_25 were a vampire then the other vampires would be voting Staydead and seeing as they haven't it seems unlikely that Dan has picked a vampire.

I'll give Mockmaster my vote, then.

+1 for Mockmaster.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Zellery** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:51 pm

I'm not for a complete random pick, sorry.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **That** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:55 pm

Mockmaster wrote:I will obviously try and do it via video like Satriales did so that it can be seen that there is no funny business going on.

Please make a post saying 'I am going to do the pick now' exactly (or as close as possible to) the minute before you start recording and show the time. That way we know you are not repeating the pick to get a result you want. Thanks.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Psychic** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:56 pm

Five minutes.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **That** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:57 pm

Karlprof wrote:
Mockmaster wrote:I will obviously try and do it via video like Satriales did so that it can be seen that there is no funny business going on.

Please make a post saying 'I am going to do the pick now' exactly (or as close as possible to) the minute before you start recording and show the time. That way we know you are not repeating the pick to get a result you want. Thanks.

In fact, it would be even better if you were to record yourself typing and submitting that post and have the video as one big continuous thing. This would almost guarantee there was no trickery.

PostRe: AYAV? PS. I'm a Vampire? by **Memento Mori** » Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:57 pm

Dan- PCCD and Luke_25

Red Devil, Zellery, MCN, Rubix

StayDead- Dan and Red Devil

Mori, Satriales

Mockmaster- 2 randoms

Karlprof, Wiggles, Mind Crime,

Did I miss anyone?

AYAV? gg all

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