Politics Thread 7: Dishy Rishi's Cabinet of Horrors

[Oblomov Boblomov]

I can't imagine what would happen in that scenario to be honest. Would someone try to create a phoenix party?

I like to think it would become a national holiday, to be celebrated for centuries.

[Grumpy David]

If that YouGov poll was repeated at a general election, it'd look like this:

And not a single high profile Tory MP would remain:

twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1788475768663617896

[Winckle]

I can't imagine what would happen in that scenario to be honest. Would someone try to create a phoenix party?

[Moggy]

I can't imagine what would happen in that scenario to be honest. Would someone try to create a phoenix party?

AFC Tory
Tory Dons
Tory (2024)
The Party Formerly Known As Tory

[Cuttooth]

Tories4PR

[Lex-Man]

I can't imagine what would happen in that scenario to be honest. Would someone try to create a phoenix party?

It happened in Canada in 1993, the progressive Cons went from 154 seats to 2 seats. I think people are under estimating the chance of that kind of super low turn out number of seats for the Tories.

[jimbojango]

The MPs formerly known as Pricks

[Cuttooth]

Some detailed analysis on how Labour's proposals on improving workers' rights have been pretty clearly watered down since their 2021 version.

twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1788521905890242676

twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1788523436970504491

twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1788525039328878822

twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1788527365020119372

twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1788527903065485452

twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1788531901478695206

https://www.ft.com/content/dd620715-78b ... 2967ba3069

[Sprouty]

The predictions are hilarious, but whilst Rishi wants us to 'stick to the plan', I think Labour have a much better attack line, which is something along the lines of 'do you feel better off?'

Well, interest rates started to increase at the end of 2021 and hit their current peak in August 2023. A typical 3 year fixed rate means that every day, more people are stepping on to higher rates. Even if interest rates start to come down before the GE, not one fixed rate mortgage payer will feel better off (unless they magically go back down to near 0 overnight), because their monthly payments will still be higher than it was back in 2021.

And this is the huge poltical mistake made by the Conservatives. In pushing an election back, more people will notice the impact on their own budgets (which for many, is the key driver of their politics).

Had Conservatives called an election last year, I'm sure that they would have lost, but some of the damage which is baked in to peoples personal finances and still hasn't hit those lucky enough to lock in in 2021, would have been felt under a Labour government.

I think Conservatives are the strongest when it comes to playing politics, i.e. spin and attack lines. But they've made such an almighty mess, that they're backed in to a corner. Of course, there are many renters too, but for renters the problem is pretty much permanently baked in.

It's easy to feel disconnected from politics until it impacts you directly. I suspect we'll continue to see a downward trend in Tory support.

[Moggy]

Had Conservatives called an election last year, I'm sure that they would have lost, but some of the damage which is baked in to peoples personal finances and still hasn't hit those lucky enough to lock in in 2021, would have been felt under a Labour government.

That's true, but is also the reason Sunak didn't call an election. He wants to be PM as long as possible.

We always say the Tories choose party over country. And that's true. But they will always choose self over party.

[Grumpy David]

The predictions are hilarious, but whilst Rishi wants us to 'stick to the plan', I think Labour have a much better attack line, which is something along the lines of 'do you feel better off?'

Well, interest rates started to increase at the end of 2021 and hit their current peak in August 2023. A typical 3 year fixed rate means that every day, more people are stepping on to higher rates. Even if interest rates start to come down before the GE, not one fixed rate mortgage payer will feel better off (unless they magically go back down to near 0 overnight), because their monthly payments will still be higher than it was back in 2021.

And this is the huge poltical mistake made by the Conservatives. In pushing an election back, more people will notice the impact on their own budgets (which for many, is the key driver of their politics).

Had Conservatives called an election last year, I'm sure that they would have lost, but some of the damage which is baked in to peoples personal finances and still hasn't hit those lucky enough to lock in in 2021, would have been felt under a Labour government.

I think Conservatives are the strongest when it comes to playing politics, i.e. spin and attack lines. But they've made such an almighty mess, that they're backed in to a corner. Of course, there are many renters too, but for renters the problem is pretty much permanently baked in.

It's easy to feel disconnected from politics until it impacts you directly. I suspect we'll continue to see a downward trend in Tory support.

Starmer going for a Reaganite slogan would be rather amusing. Especially if Trump uses the same slogan and with the 2 elections likely as close together as Five Eyes countries would consider sensible.

Apparently between now and November there are 900,000 mortgages expiring (so potentially up to 1.8 million affected voters). 'Mortgaged homeowner' is a good owner for "potentially a Tory voter" and they're not geographically concentrated but are widely dispersed and undoubtedly blame the Truss mini-budget for the spike in mortgage fixed rates.

Starmer's majority is going to be enormous, it'll certainly be interesting to see how much divergence from the status quo there will be given the transformative power he'll hold.

Delay and hope for the best being the Tory policy suggests January 2025 is probably more likely than later this year (but worsens the mortgage issue).

[Sprouty]

I tried to do some maths, turned to Google and found this article on this exact subject, from today!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/prope ... age-rises/

Rishi Sunak faces a “reckoning” at the polls as 900,000 homeowners brace for mortgage rises before a possible November general election.

Some 4,200 mortgage holders a day are set to see their repayments rise by an average of £240 between now and an expected election in November, analysis suggests.

Voters in traditionally Conservative “Blue Wall” seats in southern England will be among the hardest hit, according to research by the House of Commons Library commissioned by the Liberal Democrats. It was based on data from the Financial Conduct Authority, the City regulator.

So there we go. Approximately 3.6% of the electorate to bump on to a higher rate before November (based on 2 per household and approx 50 million voters), allegedly disproportionately impacting Tory voters.

Stick with the plan, Rishi!

[Moggy]

I tried to do some maths, turned to Google and found this article on this exact subject, from today!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/prope ... age-rises/

Rishi Sunak faces a “reckoning” at the polls as 900,000 homeowners brace for mortgage rises before a possible November general election.

Some 4,200 mortgage holders a day are set to see their repayments rise by an average of £240 between now and an expected election in November, analysis suggests.

Voters in traditionally Conservative “Blue Wall” seats in southern England will be among the hardest hit, according to research by the House of Commons Library commissioned by the Liberal Democrats. It was based on data from the Financial Conduct Authority, the City regulator.

So there we go. Approximately 3.6% of the electorate to bump on to a higher rate before November (based on 2 per household and approx 50 million voters), allegedly disproportionately impacting Tory voters.

Stick with the plan, Rishi!

It'll hit renters as well, as there's no way the landlords won't pass those increased mortgage costs on.

[Grumpy David]

I tried to do some maths, turned to Google and found this article on this exact subject, from today!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/prope ... age-rises/

Rishi Sunak faces a “reckoning” at the polls as 900,000 homeowners brace for mortgage rises before a possible November general election.

Some 4,200 mortgage holders a day are set to see their repayments rise by an average of £240 between now and an expected election in November, analysis suggests.

Voters in traditionally Conservative “Blue Wall” seats in southern England will be among the hardest hit, according to research by the House of Commons Library commissioned by the Liberal Democrats. It was based on data from the Financial Conduct Authority, the City regulator.

So there we go. Approximately 3.6% of the electorate to bump on to a higher rate before November (based on 2 per household and approx 50 million voters), allegedly disproportionately impacting Tory voters.

Stick with the plan, Rishi!

It'll hit renters as well, as there's no way the landlords won't pass those increased mortgage costs on.

Private renters as a group are highly unlikely to vote Tory and are more geographically clustered in urban areas so the impact is far more muted compared to mortgaged homeowners.

The Tories stubborn persistence in NIMBYism despite rapid population growth now means they've also failed to build a future electorate and we're now going to have the first election in which millennials are a larger voting bloc than boomers.

[Moggy]

I tried to do some maths, turned to Google and found this article on this exact subject, from today!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/prope ... age-rises/

Rishi Sunak faces a “reckoning” at the polls as 900,000 homeowners brace for mortgage rises before a possible November general election.

Some 4,200 mortgage holders a day are set to see their repayments rise by an average of £240 between now and an expected election in November, analysis suggests.

Voters in traditionally Conservative “Blue Wall” seats in southern England will be among the hardest hit, according to research by the House of Commons Library commissioned by the Liberal Democrats. It was based on data from the Financial Conduct Authority, the City regulator.

So there we go. Approximately 3.6% of the electorate to bump on to a higher rate before November (based on 2 per household and approx 50 million voters), allegedly disproportionately impacting Tory voters.

Stick with the plan, Rishi!

It'll hit renters as well, as there's no way the landlords won't pass those increased mortgage costs on.

Private renters as a group are highly unlikely to vote Tory and are more geographically clustered in urban areas so the impact is far more muted compared to mortgaged homeowners.

The Tories stubborn persistence in NIMBYism despite rapid population growth now means they've also failed to build a future electorate and we're now going to have the first election in which millennials are a larger voting bloc than boomers.

I was pointing out that the bump in higher interest rates also hits renters.

The proportion of mortgage holders planning to vote Tory was already tiny last year.

[Sprouty]

I tried to do some maths, turned to Google and found this article on this exact subject, from today!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/prope ... age-rises/

Rishi Sunak faces a “reckoning” at the polls as 900,000 homeowners brace for mortgage rises before a possible November general election.

Some 4,200 mortgage holders a day are set to see their repayments rise by an average of £240 between now and an expected election in November, analysis suggests.

Voters in traditionally Conservative “Blue Wall” seats in southern England will be among the hardest hit, according to research by the House of Commons Library commissioned by the Liberal Democrats. It was based on data from the Financial Conduct Authority, the City regulator.

So there we go. Approximately 3.6% of the electorate to bump on to a higher rate before November (based on 2 per household and approx 50 million voters), allegedly disproportionately impacting Tory voters.

Stick with the plan, Rishi!

It'll hit renters as well, as there's no way the landlords won't pass those increased mortgage costs on.

I would suspect that there are few renters not already impacted.

Unfortunately, (new) rents have gone up at a similar rate and will probably stay there, even if interest rates fall. With rentals, you could get away with it if you're on a long term let and your landlord doesnt take advantage, but that's not the typical.

I'd suspect there will be some renters stung with a large increase before the next election. It's a bit harder to find stats for that, but the general direction of travel is the same - the longer it takes for an election, the more people who will be impacted further by increased housing costs, not less.

[Garth]

twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1788963297946984759

[Wedgie]

I will never vote for Labour again in Scotland.

[Cuttooth]

twitter.com/itvnews/status/1788967005443301687

[Grumpy David]

Donald Trump often misunderstood on Nato, says Labour's David Lammy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68983472

Mr Lammy said he and Mr Trump could find "common cause," suggesting that as a "good Christian boy" and "small-c conservative," he shares some views with Republicans.

Mr Lammy previously called Mr Trump a "neo-Nazi sympathising sociopath".

Didn't know Lammy was particularly Christian nor that he considered himself as a 'small c' conservative.

I will never vote for Labour again in Scotland.

Is this due to something specific or due to Labour being a Unionist party?